When the Energy Information Administration unveils its annual long-term energy outlook on Wednesday, it's fair to say that nearly everyone will find something to love.
The report should predict that U.S. oil and gas production will continue to grow rapidly through the use of hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling, while renewables will also grow, though possibly at a slower pace. The only loser will be coal, if current trends are any indication.
EIA always acknowledges the outlook is speculative and later will publish an expanded version that explores numerous alternatives.
Still, this year's projections out to 2040 should extend the sense that the domestic energy renaissance is here to stay.
It will be good news for President Barack Obama, who is getting a lot of free advice these days from the energy, natural security and environmental lobbies.
He won a second term on a middle-ground platform that rejected big expansions of drilling on federal lands and waters and embraced modest clean energy and climate change action.
Expansions of natural gas and oil on private lands and in the Gulf of Mexico have run domestic oil production to 14-year highs.
That news does little to upend his stance that the oil and gas industry is doing just fine without opening up areas that will only stir up fights with environmental groups and local opponents.
EIA predicted last year that domestic oil output would range up to 7.8 million barrels a day by 2035 -- but the industry appears to be racing well ahead of that trend line. Oil companies produced 6.5 million barrels a day just last month.
Natural gas production should also see strong projections, ones that could stir the fight over hydraulic fracturing regulation and gas exports. But big numbers also give room for Obama to pursue pollution regulations on coal-fired plants and meet his carbon reduction pledges.
The outlook for renewables will be more variable, because of the sector's reliance at least in part on government support and state renewable energy requirements.
Obama has been a strong backer of a renewal of the wind Production Tax Credit, and an outlook that says renewables could expand with continued government support will embolden him and the green energy business lobby to push it through Congress.
Nuclear should remain a side player, bigger than renewables in terms of electricity but still behind gas and coal. If gas supplies show no signs of contracting and electricity demand remains flat, nuclear has limited room to grow.
That leaves coal. Coal is getting more expensive to mine and plant owners are expected to retire old, dirty plants rather than bring them up to new pollution standards, much less build new plants. If anything, EIA could steepen its predicted reduction of coal's share of domestic electricity production.
What does all this add up to? Mostly likely, an endorsement of the status quo. Energy policy gets the most attention during a time of shortage, and EIA should have little evidence of that.
